EN  |  FR

Is there a good market timing in private investments?

Private equity investors often ask the question: is there such a thing as good market timing? In the unlisted sector, there are significant differences in performance between managers. And with interest rates rebounding, selectivity is all the more crucial. In particular, you need to identify whether now is the right time to gain exposure to a particular strategy. When it comes to unlisted investments, the notion of ‘market timing’ does not have the same meaning as it does on the stock market.

No daily valuation of unlisted assets

Investors accustomed to the stock market are often preoccupied with finding the right entry point, fearing that they will miss the next upward movement and be exposed just before a sharp fall. With unlisted assets, there is no need for this bias. In private equity, there is no daily valuation of assets. Admittedly, the price of unlisted deals is never totally independent of stock market fluctuations, since the valuation of listed companies provides points of comparison. However, the money entrusted to an unlisted fund will not be invested immediately. On the contrary: the investment phase (which can extend over four or five years) gives the fund manager considerable latitude in deciding whether or not to invest in the companies proposed to him or her, and therefore to pass up the opportunity to invest when valuations seem excessive.

This natural smoothing of entry points into private equity should not prevent investors from gradually building up their allocation by spreading it across different strategies. More than market timing, what really matters when you invest by agreeing to tie up your money over the long term (generally around ten years) is gaining exposure to companies that are leaders in their markets, and therefore have significant growth potential through the cycles. The deterioration in the macroeconomic climate in recent months, rising inflation and interest rates, and geopolitical threats, mean that investors and their advisers are operating in an environment that is becoming increasingly difficult to understand, where the selection of management teams will be decisive.

Private equity creates value

If private equity has an advantage, it is that, on average, the support given to SMEs and SMIs by unlisted funds creates value. This is borne out by a study published by France Invest in December 2023, which looked at 407 company sales by French private equity players between 2012 and 2022. On average, the value of the shares was multiplied by 2.9 over the company's holding period, which averaged 5 years and 5 months. Investors in unlisted assets should therefore focus on selecting the best management teams, those capable of doing better than this rather enviable average. Historical performance and the ability of certain managers to adapt to different economic phases, including periods of crisis such as 2008 or Covid, are crucial factors.

So it's not so much the right time as the right manager! As an intermediary, Private Corner's role is to evaluate teams in the fund-raising phase, document how they have delivered performance and observe how they have behaved in tense market phases.

Let's work together